Storm Surge Analysis (EM 1110-2-1412), Chapter 3: Statistical Methods
This chapter covers the statistical methods used to put a probability on surge heights. The historical method covers series selection, adjusting the data base, and fitting a frequency curve by graphic or analytical methods.
The synthetic method is used when the record is too short. It covers the joint probability concept, the traditional joint probability procedure, statistical distribution of hurricane parameters, surge simulation, the distribution of astronomical tides, and the combination of surge and tide. Combining surge and tide is important because a surge that arrives at high tide is far more damaging than one that arrives at low tide, and the chapter shows how to find the probability of the combined water level.
It ends with concluding remarks on the synthetic method.
In this chapter
- General
- Historical Method
- Synthetic Method
- Joint Probability Concept
- Traditional Joint Probability Procedure
- Statistical Distribution of Hurricane Parameters
- Surge Simulation
- Distribution of Astronomical Tides
- Combination of Surge and Tide